Hamburg, 04/07/2022

THE MARKET SENTIMENT INDEX (MSI)

The Market Sentiment Index is a leading indicator index of activity in the MPP industry. It averages the res­pon­ses from an anonymous group of multipurpose vessel owner and operators to a set of breakbulk shipping-related questions. A reading of 50 is neu­tral, indicating a static market; scores below 50 show pessimism or wariness, and a score above 50 indicates optimism.

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MSI 5th EDITION – Q2 2022

For the first time in more than a year, the Q2 2022 headline MSI index has fallen back – albeit only marginally.
Whilst two thirds of questions in the current survey returned higher scores than in the previous edition, those questions relating to short / med term confidence as well as TCE development is weighing on confidence.
A question relating to whether the wider effects of the Ukrainian war has impacted on carriers confidence returned a neutral score but the sharp rise in bunker levels and high inflationary pressure is beginning to impact opex and voyex. This is posing a dilemma for carriers. Pass on the cost in higher freight? Or absorb and lower TCE expectations which have been at record levels? The latter is probably more true than the former.
Add to this the seemingly traditional post Christmas blues and, increasingly CNY who’s effect has become more pronounced in recent years, particularly this year with covid congestion and lockdowns. There are early signs that before this situation eases, the China / US summer peak season will be underway and new pressure on carrier demand will be felt. Longer term confidence continues to climb – albeit more slowly than the past, and forward order books have built further – up a few notches to 60.4.
This suggests that recent headwinds can be explained more by external factors than any fall in underlying demand. The biggest mover this edition however is in the potential for hiring new staff which is 2.5% higher at 55.1. This is the highest level since the index began.

Market sentiment Index 2022 Q1

The Market Sentiment Index is a leading indicator index of activity in the MPP industry. It averages the responses from an anonymous group of multipurpose vessel owner and operators to a set of breakbulk shipping-related questions. A reading of 50 is neutral, indicating a static market; scores below 50 show pessimism or wariness, and a score above 50 indicates optimism

Downloads

More information and related articles

MSI 5th EDITION – Q2 2022

For the first time in more than a year, the Q2 2022 headline MSI index has fallen back – albeit only marginally.
Whilst two thirds of questions in the current survey returned higher scores than in the previous edition, those questions relating to short / med term confidence as well as TCE development is weighing on confidence.
A question relating to whether the wider effects of the Ukrainian war has impacted on carriers confidence returned a neutral score but the sharp rise in bunker levels and high inflationary pressure is beginning to impact opex and voyex. This is posing a dilemma for carriers. Pass on the cost in higher freight? Or absorb and lower TCE expectations which have been at record levels? The latter is probably more true than the former.
Add to this the seemingly traditional post Christmas blues and, increasingly CNY who’s effect has become more pronounced in recent years, particularly this year with covid congestion and lockdowns. There are early signs that before this situation eases, the China / US summer peak season will be underway and new pressure on carrier demand will be felt. Longer term confidence continues to climb – albeit more slowly than the past, and forward order books have built further – up a few notches to 60.4.
This suggests that recent headwinds can be explained more by external factors than any fall in underlying demand. The biggest mover this edition however is in the potential for hiring new staff which is 2.5% higher at 55.1. This is the highest level since the index began.

MSI 5th EDITION – Q2 2022

For the first time in more than a year, the Q2 2022 headline MSI index has fallen back – albeit only marginally.
Whilst two thirds of questions in the current survey returned higher scores than in the previous edition, those questions relating to short / med term confidence as well as TCE development is weighing on confidence.
A question relating to whether the wider effects of the Ukrainian war has impacted on carriers confidence returned a neutral score but the sharp rise in bunker levels and high inflationary pressure is beginning to impact opex and voyex. This is posing a dilemma for carriers. Pass on the cost in higher freight? Or absorb and lower TCE expectations which have been at record levels? The latter is probably more true than the former.
Add to this the seemingly traditional post Christmas blues and, increasingly CNY who’s effect has become more pronounced in recent years, particularly this year with covid congestion and lockdowns. There are early signs that before this situation eases, the China / US summer peak season will be underway and new pressure on carrier demand will be felt. Longer term confidence continues to climb – albeit more slowly than the past, and forward order books have built further – up a few notches to 60.4.
This suggests that recent headwinds can be explained more by external factors than any fall in underlying demand. The biggest mover this edition however is in the potential for hiring new staff which is 2.5% higher at 55.1. This is the highest level since the index began.

Market sentiment Index 2022 Q1

The Market Sentiment Index is a leading indicator index of activity in the MPP industry. It averages the responses from an anonymous group of multipurpose vessel owner and operators to a set of breakbulk shipping-related questions. A reading of 50 is neutral, indicating a static market; scores below 50 show pessimism or wariness, and a score above 50 indicates optimism

Downloads

More information and related articles

Market sentiment Index 2022 Q1

MSI Details

Dials:

1. Previous Edition score

2. Forecast Next Edition

3. MSI average

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